Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc says that China’s growing exports to Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America amid US tariffs might be driving a fundamental reshaping of the global container market.

When US President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on key trading partners in April 2025 — with China bearing the brunt at a steep 145%— the White House’s stated aim was clear: protect US manufacturing, shrink the trade deficit, and reduce reliance on Chinese imports. Yet, just four months in, the reshaping of global trade flows appears to be favouring Beijing more than Washington, as China redirects exports towards other markets and the global shipping sector shows (un)expected resilience. US ports, on the other hand, are bracing for a slowdown.

Vincent Clerc, CEO of container shipping giant A.P. Moller–Maersk, told investors during a recent conference call that the global container demand is estimated to have increased between 3% and 5% year-on-year during the second quarter of 2025, challenging the concerns of an immediate collapse in global trade after the US tariff announcements. Specifically, the contraction in North American imports was more than offset by the strong import growth into Europe, Latin America, West-Central Asia and Africa. Rather than collapsing under the weight of disrupted US–China trade, global container volumes seem to have powered through the headwinds and are now tracking towards the upper end of Maersk’s new forecast — two to four percent growth in 2025 — with China’s industrial output driving much of the expansion.

Acceleration of globalisation?

This “engine” has been running at full speed for over a year, with Chinese factories redirecting goods to Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Clerc described this as a possible “rebalancing of global trade where the USA goes a certain way with a tariff regime and China continues to gain market share.” He added that if China sustains this momentum “on the back of the industrial successes that they’re having and the overcapacity that there is in China, this could, actually, carry stronger market growth than anticipated for a few years.” Clerc noted that since China’s accession to the WTO in the early 2000s, production offshoring fuelled container trade growth well above global GDP. However, since 2023, the dynamic has changed. “China is gaining market share on the world stage, not by producing stuff for Western companies, but by having its own companies going global,” he pointed out, referring to companies producing EVs, solar panels, wind turbines, mobile phones and technology. “I think that the fabric of global trade is changing. Despite all the talk of de-globalisation, if you look at the numbers, what we are seeing in one and a half years is an acceleration of globalisation on the back of a huge commercial success from Chinese companies taking market share on the global stage.”

The critical test now lies in the fourth quarter. Clerc noted that the difference between 2 and 4% market growth hinges on whether Chinese industrial output maintains its current pace or cools in the final months of the year. If the momentum holds, China could consolidate its role as the growth engine of container shipping — a development that would underline just how limited the US tariffs’ impact has been on Beijing’s export machine.

The key question remains whether this trend will persist for just another quarter or extend over the next five years. While the global market is large enough to sustain China’s growing presence for the foreseeable future, some countries may perceive the shift as a threat to their domestic industries and respond with increased protectionist measures. The reality, according to Clerc, is that, at least in the short to medium term, the global trade is being rerouted rather than reduced, and shipping lines like Maersk are adapting quickly to new patterns.

NRF: 2025 import cargo levels estimated to drop 5% from 2024

On the US side of things, the US National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that the tariffs that entered into force last week will put pressure on international trade, causing import cargo volume at the US major container ports to end 2025 5.6% below 2024’s volume. “While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by US importers that will result in higher prices for US consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said friends, allies and rivals alike were being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers tried to anticipate tariff changes by bringing forward shipments before duties took effect. He said the front-loading of imports would likely trigger a downturn in volumes by late September, as inventories for the holiday season would already be in place, while US exporters were being left with unsold goods due to retaliatory tariffs.

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96m TEU in June, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.7% from May but down 8.4% year-over-year. July is forecast to have surged to 2.3m TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of this month’s tariffs. That would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% year over year. August is forecast at 2.2mTEU, down 5% year over year, and September at 1.83m TEU, down 19.5% year over year. October is forecast at 1.82mTEU, down 18.9% year over year; and November at 1.71m TEU, down 21.1% for the lowest total since 1.78m TEU in April 2023. December is forecast at 1.72m TEU, down 19.3% year over year. While the falling aggregate totals in September through December are related to pulling cargo forward during the first half of the year due to tariffs, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. The first half of 2025 totalled 12.53m TEU, up 3.6% year over year. Volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1m TEU, down 5.6% from 25.5m TEU in 2024.